Want to know Pete Carroll’s game plan for this Sunday? No chance, unless you’re a player, coach, or maybe Macklemore. Curious about Bill Belichick’s approach to the Super Bowl? Too bad, unless you’re Tom Brady or the equipment manager (too soon?). Trying to decipher what these two inventive coaches have in store for the big game is a losing proposition. But if you can answer these three key questions early in the game, you should get a sense of how the Seahawks and Patriots plan to attack each other.

How many Pats defenders are “in the box”? Bill Belichick invested $28 million in his pass defense this offseason. And who does he face in the Super Bowl? The NFL’s best rushing offense. Belichick’s defense is only league-average against the run. We’ll see right away how Belichick plans to manage his bad luck. On the Seahawks’ first offensive possession, count how many New England defenders line up within five yards of the football (“in the box”). If you count seven or eight, it means that Belichick’s strategy is to stop Marshawn Lynch and force the Seahawks to gain yards through the air against that expensive secondary.

Who defends Gronk? Pete Carroll’s defensive philosophy: Get the best athletes, then put them in one-on-one situations where they’ll be bigger and faster than their opponents. And who does he face in the Super Bowl? The NFL’s toughest one-on-one matchup. Patriots tight end Rob Gronkowski, at 6´6˝, 260 lbs., has wide-receiver skills in an offensive lineman’s body. The Hawks simply don’t have a player who matches Gronk physically. Pete Carroll almost never double-teams receivers or changes his defense to account for particular players, but with Gronkowski he may not have a choice. Watch who defends Gronk early on—if it’s a different guy from play-to-play, that means Carroll is sticking with his normal defense.

When will Wilson run? With the Seahawks’ passing game doing more harm than good against Green Bay in the NFC Championship, armchair playcallers everywhere—and not just 12s, some national media folks too—couldn’t grasp why the Hawks waited so long to make Russell Wilson’s legs more of a threat. It’s been like this all year: The Hawks only unleash Wilson’s running game when they’ve exhausted all other options. But if New England is able to take Marshawn Lynch out of the game (see above) and force quarterback Wilson to contend with the Pats’ pass defense, running back Wilson may be the Hawks’ best weapon. If Wilson attempts at least two runs in the Seahawks’ first 10 plays, it likely means his legs are a bigger part of the game plan than they’ve been all year.

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