Mayor Mike McGinn’s campaign manager John Wyble said this afternoon that it would not surprise him if the mayor finishes third this evening. But Wyble said he’s optimistic that McGinn will survive the primary (and finish at least second) when all the votes are tallied.
If Mcginn does manage to live to fight another day, it will be because of a superior ground game, in particular its well-staffed phone bank operation.

“We’ve been making 10,000 to 15,000 calls the past two or three nights at various call locations, with union help,” Wyble said.

McGinn’s chief political operative believes late voters (those voting Monday and today, and whose vote will not show up in tonight’s count) will break for the mayor in numbers sufficient enough to get him to the general election on Nov. 5.

Seattle has a total of 417,000 registered voters. King County Elections is projecting a turnout of 35 percent, meaning around 145,000 people will cast a ballot. Around 60 to 65 percent of the total vote is expected to be tallied tonight, results of which will be released in one huge batch at about 8:15 p.m.

Whether Wyble is forecasting a third-place finish in order to create a sense of urgency among McGinn supporters — who may not yet have voted — remains to be seen.